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1 year ago
New Blog Entry In .:A-MAN:. lists stuff!
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37BlueLake2 1 month ago
If anyone hadn't seen, the Reddit April Fool's thing this year is a game where you vote on one of three images, and the goal is to vote on the item with the middle number of votes. If you do, you gain 3/6/9 points (based on how soon you vote). If you pick the most or least possible, you lose 1/2/3 points (based on how soon you vote). Every 15 seconds it gives a quick preview of the current votes to give you an idea of where people are voting. You can't change your vote, so if you go early you risk more points but can't gauge other votes as well.

If you guess about 1/3 correct, and you get +3 points for corrects and -1 for incorrects, I think you average a net +0.33 points per guess over time?

I think I figured out a pretty solid technique, and I set up a quick Python script to automate it overnight to see how it goes. I've noticed that if there's a clear loser after the first preview of votes, that item never catches up at all. The other two are always a pretty clear neck-and-neck tie due to the feedback influencing late votes, and it's common for the vote split to be like 1000 vs 1002. I've been picking whatever has the most amount of votes after the first reveal, since we know the thing in last is out of the running, so it's pretty much a 50/50 where you get +3 on correct and -1 on incorrect, which I think is +1 point on average per turn.

I just have Pillow taking screenshots every couple seconds, Pytesseract parsing the votes as numbers, and PyAutoGui clicking specific points. Hopefully I'll get some nice results in the morning. I'm tired and don't want to set up something to track the wins/losses so hopefully points will be enough
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1 month ago
@Dill pickle that's part of the sport :P
31Yenwood 1 month ago
every single reddit april fools lasts like 10 seconds before someone bots it all to hell
1 month ago
1 month ago
@BlueLake2 lol doing the stats.
37BlueLake2 1 month ago
Okay wow, looks like I hit exactly 50% winrate by picking the highest between the left and right. 105 wins across 210 rounds with a 420 point gain.

It looks like the top players have an average of +2.6/round assuming they played every single round since it came out, or 3/round if they started 150 rounds (~2.5 hours) after the game launch. I need to figure out their strategy.
37BlueLake2 1 month ago
idk it's 3:30 and I should sleep
37BlueLake2 1 month ago
The most popular bandwagon seems to be not picking the middle option, with the intent that if nobody votes for the middle, it's just a 50/50 vote between left or right. It seems that the middle only wins about 18% of the time.

I'm considering changing it so that it only picks between the higher of the left or right, but I don't think that supplements my strategy very well. If the descending order of votes goes left, middle, right and people are intentionally not picking middle, then there's no way that the left one can win second place, and it still doesn't seem that the lowest vote gains more momentum. I'm afraid that if middle is in second place during reveals, then it might stay second place for the rest of the round, so only going left or right might be harmful
37BlueLake2 1 month ago
Oo actually since I'm going at point values of +6/-2 (due to guessing after the first reveal but before the second), it seems that my average per turn is 2.
37BlueLake2 1 month ago
I also pick the one with the most votes because in the off-chance all three are tied at the first preview, usually the one with the most votes stays afloat and a random of the other two will be the one that sinks to the bottom. There's still some randomness in when the screenshot gets taken and if the most voted changes within that preview window, but it seems to be good enough.